Belajar Forex & Online Business

Risk Management: How to avoid losing your shirt while trading forex.

Ini ada satu artikel/posting forum ttg risk management dalam forex yg pada aku memang berguna utk kita jadikan panduan dalam aktiviti trading forex kita. Posting asal boleh dapat pada link ni —> Posting forum

Have you ever seen things like these on a website or in a review?
“I followed those trading signals, and my account dropped 70% in 3 days.”
“I tried this method and got margin called in less than a week.”

Let me put this simply. It doesn’t matter if some trading method, trading room, signals service, or anything else has a perfect reviews and a 5 year history showing that it never had a single losing trade. It doesn’t matter if it’s endorsed by Felix, Crazy Cat, Sir Pipsalot and the heads of the IMF, ECB, and the US Treasury. Not matter what “proof” is offered, no matter how well endorsed it is, no matter what the guarantee is, DO NOT EVER RISK TOO MUCH OF YOUR ACCOUNT ON ANY ONE TRADE.

No human, no computer, no “perfect” signals or other trading method can be right 100% of the time. It’s possible to backtest and optimize something so that it’s “perfect” with old data, but the forex market is an unpredictable beast. Good systems and signals can be right much of the time, but NOTHING will ever be right 100% of the time if you let it run long enough.

Risk Management is the concept of having a plan that sets a maximum amount of risk that you will place on any one trade. How much risk is “too much” risk is the subject of much debate. I’ve seen numbers ranging from 1/2% to 5%. Some of this will depend on the forward tested success rate of your system, and some will depend on what you consider to be an acceptable level of risk.

“But if I don’t risk much, I can’t make much.” is a common complaint against risk management. To some extent, this is true. On the other hand, if you have nothing in your forex account to trade with, you won’t make any money at all. If you risk too much and there’s a big gap in price (or your broker gives you too much slippage), you can not only lose all the money in your account, but you can possibly even end up OWING money to your broker.

Let’s say you have $10,000 in your account. Then you decide to risk $5000 for the chance to make $5000 (a 1:1 ratio). If the trade goes your way, you have $15,000. That’s great, but what if it goes the other way? Then you only have $5000. Now, you need to double your $5000 to get back to where you started. If you risk half your account again and the “99% accurate” system fails you again, then you only have $2500 left. Now you would have to quadruple your account to get back to where you started. Fail one more trade like this and you have only $1250 left. You would have to have more than 5 perfect trades gaining 50% each time to get back to where you started. After 3 losses in a row wiping out over 85% of your account, would you really want to trust this trading method to work 5 or 6 times in a row now?

Let’s say you feel like using the highest end of typical risk management recommendations and risk 5% of your $10,000 account on each trade. Once again, we’ll use a 1:1 ratio just to keep the math simple. This means you’ll risk $500 on the first trade while hoping to make $500. If the first trade goes bad, you have $9500 left. You would have to lose many trades in a row to lose half of your account, and far more to go all the way down to $1250. It is true that you won’t be able to make money as fast, but what good is making huge sums of cash if you can lose most or all of your hard earned profits from a single bad trade.

I would NEVER risk more than 1/2 percent of my account per trade on something I hadn’t personally forward tested on a live account for an extended period. If I have confidence in a system that I have tested live over time, I slowly and carefully scale up the size of each trade. I’m not going to say exactly what my personal maximum risk is, since I want you to select your own, not just copy what I do.

If you want to try something new, first try it with a demo account, but remember that demo accounts get filled quicker and have little or no slippage. A real account is much more likely to have slippage and requotes, thus cutting into potential profits. If demo testing looks good, then move it to your live account and trade the smallest amounts possible, just to see how the trading works with your broker.

It’s not that hard to catch a news spike (or to straddle the price with pending orders) on a demo account. With a live account, even the best broker won’t fill every order perfectly if you try to catch the news spike. Some brokers even go so far as to prohibit news trading. This means that if you make a profit trying to catch a news spike, they will confiscate it. Somehow, they never will give you a refund if you lose money on a news trade. Since I’m primarily a technical trader, this isn’t a problem for me. If you really want to try to catch news spikes, Felix strongly recommends MB Trading. I haven’t tried them out for news trading, so I can’t give a personal opinion on this.

If you are using forex signals or some other system and you have successfully traded it for long enough to be comfortable with it, ask the signals (or other product’s) support staff what the maximum risk they recommend is. They should be more familiar with the product than anyone else. Just remember to start small on any new system and never to exceed your own personal maximum risk per trade no matter what anyone else says.

Although a historic record of pip gains for a signals service, trading room, or trading method is a good thing to consider, the actual results you get will always be a little different. See where I’ve been reporting the results of my tests of Intelli4x’s signals. At the moment due to pure dumb luck, I’ve actually been doing a little better in total pips on the trades I’ve taken than the “official” record for the signals I’ve taken from them. Sometimes I’ve entered a little better, sometimes I’ve missed a close signal and something went on and hit the take profit number. If my schedule had been a little different, this could just as easily gone the other way and cut into the results.

Setting your risk is easy with most brokers. You just need to set a stoploss on each trade. Remember that xxxUSD pairs are worth $10 per pip for a full lot, $1 per pip for a minilot, 10 cents per pip for a microlot, and 1 cent per pip for a nanolots. For other pairs, it’s a very good idea to check a pip value calculator. If you wanted to take a maximum risk of $100 on a trade, then you can only set the stoploss to a mere 10 pips if you plan to trade a full lot of a xxxUSD pair. On the other hand, you can trade 5 minilots and with a 20 pip stoploss or 1 minilot and use a 100 pip stoploss. Usually, the stoploss is determined by your trading method and then you need calculate the maximum lot size of the trade that you can risk. If the smallest amount your broker will let you trade would exceed your maximum risk, skip the trade (or find a broker that lets you trade smaller amounts).

Remember, some brokers are better at closing your order exactly where you set the stoploss. Others frequently have very bad slippage and will fill your order at a price that is worse for you. If your broker does this too often, reduce your total risk per trade to compensate for the potential slippage loss and look for a better broker.

If you plan to leave an order open after the New York trading session ends on Friday afternoon, be aware that there might be a gap in price when the Tokyo market opens (Sunday evening in New York). If price gaps across your stoploss, you could lose a lot more than you planned. Alternatively, some brokers won’t observe the stoploss under these circumstances and the price could continue to move against you even more. Until you have a solid understanding of market dynamics, your broker’s methods, and understand all of the risks involved, you might want to close all positions on Friday before the market shuts down for the weekend and then re-open them when the market opens on Sunday.

My personal advice for ANY trading method you are considering would be to start with a combination of backtesting as well as forward testing on a demo account. Don’t base your decision to go live on 1 or 2 trades. Remember, coin tosses are accurate 1/2 the time, and getting heads or tails 3 or even 4 times in a row isn’t that hard to do. Once you have enough data to feel confident, trade TINY amounts of money live to make sure that the method can work under real world market conditions with your broker. If it’s still profitable, scale up at a reasonable pace, but NEVER exceed the maximum amount of risk per trade that you set for yourself. Even the best system in the world will still have an occasional losing streak.

Always remember this. You can’t make your fortune if you lose most of your account on a few bad trades. To get rich trading forex, you must first learn not to go broke.

I can’t promise that following this advice will absolutely save you from losing all of your money, but at least you’ll lose it slowly enough that you’ll have a chance to improve your trading technique before blowing your account.

Belajar Forex Cara Mudah

Aku pasti ramai orang surf internet cari bahan untuk belajar forex. Belajar forex ni perlukan kesabaran. Ramai trader yang gagal juga walaupun dah bertahun-tahun belajar forex. Belajar forex ni satu usaha yang berterusan. Takder trader yg berjaya lepas belajar forex kurang dari setahun. Ada orang sanggup habis beribu-ribu ringgit menghadiri kursus forex. Tapi kalau betul-betul nak belajar forex ni cara terbaik kena cari mentor yg sanggup mengajar, dan cara pembelajaran pula adalah one to one melalui trading software yg ditunjukkan trading secara ‘live’. Apa-apa pun aku ucapkan good luck kat korang yg bersungguh2 nak belajar forex ni, di mana ada kemahuan disitu ada jalan.

Dalam dilemma

Sejak kebelakangan ni aku asyik-asyik terpikir nak berhenti kerja jer, rasa mcm dah penat and taknak dah kerja makan gaji ni. Aku bercadang nak tumpukan perhatian penuh pada bisnes & self employment, antaranya aku ingat mungkin aku nak jadi retail financial consultant@insurance agent attached dengan prudential.. memang dulu aku pernah ada experience kerja dalam industri insurans ni sebagai telemarketer, kerja dok call orang promote produk insurans PA.. income masa tu memang boleh tahan masyuk jugak la kalau performance OK. Masa performance tengah top komisen pun dapat banyak, banyak benda yang aku boleh citer pasal experience kerja as telemarketer nih. Maybe dalam posting yg lain lah, ada jugak terfikir nak fokus betul2 buat MLM. Tapi kalau nak berjaya betul2 kena pilih salah satu, tak boleh la nak buat dua2 serentak join insurans & buat MLM. Ni nasihat dari org yang dah berjaya dalam industri insurans la, dulu aku ada ingat yang aku ni jenis boleh multitasking.. semua benda nak buat, fokus kat kerja skrg (mkn gaji) + buat MLM + buat biz insurans + handle bisness cc & kedai  komputer + buat duit online etc. Tapi sekarang aku sedar kalau nak lebih berjaya better fokus kat satu bidang and then buat betul2 all out, chance nak success tu lebih tinggi… entah lah, memang dalam dilemma betul nih.

My Simple Trading System

Hi,

I want to post my very simple trading system, for those of you who’s a beginner in Forex I strongly recommend you to follow and familiarize yourself with this simple system. The purpose of this system is to identify trend so that we can place trade following the trend. Your profit target in the beginning should not be set too high.. it is sufficient to set profit target at +10 pips.

First we need to identify the main trend, for this purpose we will use the 4 hour timeframe chart

The 4 hour chart settings as follow :

• 5 EMA applied to the close
• 10 EMA applied to the close
• Stochastics (10 , 3 , 3)
• RSI 9

Next chart we will use is the 15 mins timeframe chart, if the main trend in the 4 hr chart is going up we will look to trade long (buy) in the 15 mins chart, if the 4 hr chart is trending down we will be looking to open short position. This is the entry rules on the 15 mins chart after we have confirm our trend on the 4 hr chart :

Long Trade Rules :

1. 5 EMA must cross above the 10 EMA (indicated on the chart by the black candle).
2. RSI must be greater than 50.
3. Stochastics must be headed up and not in overbought territory.
4. MACD histogram must go from negative to positive OR be negative and start to increase in value (we want to catch the trend early so the MACD histogram must be negative)

Refer this chart for long trade rules :

Short Trade Rules :

1. 5 EMA must cross below the 10 EMA (indicated on the chart by purple candle)
2. RSI must be less than 50.
3. Stochastics must be headed down and not in oversold territory.
4. MACD histogram must go from positive to negative OR be positive and start to decrease in value (we want to catch the trend early so the MACD histogram must be positive)

Refer this chart for short trade rules :

15 minutes chart setup

• 5 EMA applied to the close
• 10 EMA applied to the close
• RSI (9)
• Stochastics (10 , 3 , 3)
• MACD Histogram (12 , 26 , 9 )

Share folder untuk download bahan-bahan Forex

hai,

Aku dah create satu sharefolder untuk aku simpan semua bahan-bahan berkaitan forex so korang boleh download kat situ. Boleh access share folder aku ni kat link

http://duitforex.4shared.com/ Sila gunakan link ini untuk download ebook Forex

Nanti aku akan update lagi kalau ada bahan-bahan baru yang korang boleh download kat situ TQ

Selamat datang ke dunia Forex

Hai,

Selamat datang kepada mereka yang berminat nak belajar Forex, a journey thousand miles begin with a few simple step.. korang telah mengambil langkah yang betul dengan melawat blog aku ni. So aku nak kongsikan pengetahuan aku dalam Forex.. bila korang dah kaya nanti jgn lupa bayar zakat, buat amal jariah dengan duit hasil korang trading Forex nih.. dapat jugak aku pahala berkongsi ilmu nih. kat sini boleh download koleksi ebook Forex..

Download koleksi ebook Forex free of charge

Tutorial Menggunakan Marketiva Trading Platform

Hai,

kat sini aku letak link tutorial macamana nak menggunakan Streamster tu selepas korang mendaftar di Marketiva —-> Pelajari Cara Menggunakan Software Streamster Marketiva

Dalam masa yang sama korang juga boleh mula membiasakan diri dengan Metatrader 4, satu lagi software trading platform yang memang glamour dikalangan Forex Trader. Korang boleh download MT4 dan praktis trading virtual account disini —->
Forex Demo Account Opening (MT4)

Negara pengeksport lebih suka currency mereka rendah berbanding dollar

Ini sebahagian dari news report yang aku amik kat Forexfactory :

The Bush administration is coming under heavy pressure to do something in the face of five consecutive years of soaring trade deficits, led by the yawning imbalances with China.
A group of lawmakers led by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., got widespread support last year for imposing penalty tariffs of 27.5 percent on all Chinese imports coming into the United States if China did not go further to revalue its currency.
The administration opposes this approach, arguing that it would penalize American consumers who depend on low-cost clothing and electronic products from China.
American manufacturers contend that China is manipulating its currency to keep it undervalued against the U.S. dollar by 20 percent or more. Such an action makes Chinese goods cheaper for American consumers and American products more expensive in China.
Paulson was testifying on the administration’s latest currency report to Congress released last month. In that report, the administration refused to cite China for manipulating its currency to gain trade advantages, saying the country did not meet the technical definitions of a currency manipulator.

Full news at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=15350

Uruskan masa dengan baik trading Forex ni

Salam sejahtera,

This time aku nak cerita tentang one possible impact yang boleh melanda hidup korang sekiranya korang baru nak mula berjinak-jinak dalam Forex, you might experience anxiety disorder hehe.. maksud aku tidur mungkin tak lena dok asyik teringat open position yg targetnya masih tak hit lagi cam dok menunggu buah yang takkkan gugur, kalo tido pun mungkin dok termimpi-mimpi Forex, well i can understand bagi setengah-setengah orang tuh mungkin setelah “berkenalan” dengan Forex umpama terjumpa lubuk emas di internet!! yes Forex can be very profitable i agree but please jangan sampai jadi hamba Forex, jangan dok online sepanjang masa dok tenung jer skrin monitor tuh perati turun naik chart tunggu nak open trade long ker short.. this is not a good practise kalau korang dah sampai ke tahap online dok depan pc sehari sampai 4 5 jam mengadap menatang forex nih, set a target atau kuota masa memula nih mungkin boleh setkan max 2 jam jer sehari monitor market condition.. untuk trader yang suka main teknik scalping boleh fully utilise this 2 hours monitor chart getting ready to enter & exit trade when the times is right. Masa yang selebihnya mungkin korang kena spend untuk analisis economic indicator atau news, follow thread dalam forex forum, develop own trading system ke.. pendekata banyak benda yang perlu buat se kena ada good time management. Remember the ultimate goal is to make few trades which is very profitable so its enough for u kalau nak pergi melancong 3 4 hari pun tanpa perlu bekerja, apa yang kita nak adalah freedom of time betul tak?? So jangan biarkan Forex mengambil terlalu banyak masa korang. Sekian dulu.